Throwing out the bathwater
I just read a nice post on a blog called MisEntropy. The post is a reaction to the Forbes.com article entitled “The Man Who Predicts the Medals,” about an economist named Daniel Johnson who has predicted medal counts over the past five Olympics with 94% accuracy. The accuracy is impressive, but more interesting is Johnson’s approach—he bases his predictions solely on “per-capita income (the economic output per person), the nation’s population, its political structure, its climate and the home-field advantage for hosting the Games or living nearby.”
The operative word in that sentence is solely. Johnson is quoted in the article as saying “I know nothing about the athletes. And even if I did, I didn’t include it.” The MisEntropy post focuses on this statement:
That completely derailed me.
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